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Angela Merkel, Barack Obama, BRICS, Eurozone crisis, François Hollande, France, geolpolitics, Germany, Hollande, Marine Le Pen, Mitt Romney, Nicolas Sarkozy, PREDICTIONS: 2012 & Beyond, Ron Paul, Russia, U.S. Presidential Elections, United Russia, Vladimir Putin, Year of Elections
Okay, time to brag… 😉
So, the Russian and French Presidential Elections are over in the exact way I predicted.
I said back on 1/12/2012 (and reiterated on 3/3) that Vladimir Putin would win another term with low-to-mid 60% of votes because the majority of Russians want stability, which Putin represents, and due to the fact that he and the ruling United Russia party would make all the right moves in the run-up to the elections on March 4. I also said that the allegations of fraud and protests would continue, no matter what.
That’s exactly what happened. United Russia made all the right moves before the elections, allegations of irregularities (most of the time unproven or outright fabrication) and protests are ongoing… and Putin won with 63.6% of votes.
It should be mentioned that the analysts projected him to take the votes in the high fifties. 63.6%, higher than expected, seemed to have surprised and overwhelmed President elect himself and analysts alike.
Putin’s next presidency will be very different from his 2 previous terms in this turbulent decade and in this ever-changing world of ours. I hope to cover the future of Russia, Eurasia, the BRICS and its influence on the direction of the world in one of my subsequent posts.
French Presidential Elections (4/22-5/6/2012) just ended. In my posts of 1/12, 3/3 and 4/28/2012 I predicted that Nicolas Sarkozy would lose the election due to the crisis in the Eurozone, failure of his neocon policies and general dislike the French electorate feels towards him. I also said that in a bizarre twist, socialist Hollande would take part of the far right Marine Le Pen‘s votes, because that would be the only way Hollande could win.
I also said that there would be certain changes to the French domestic and foreign policy, as the country will stop playing the “French Poodle” to the U.S. and will slowly re-aqcuire its more independent stance.
Everything happened in the exact way I predicted. Marine Le Pen, courted by Sarkozy for votes, refused to endorse him. Hollande won narrowly, but convincingly, due to some of her votes. Changes in France’s internal and especially external policies are widely expected, although, as I said, don’t expect too much all at once. It will be gradual and slow and real changes will happen later. Hollande already stated that he wouldn’t be a problem for the fellow left-winger (arguably) Obama – at least in the election year. Heads will likely start rolling in 2013. 😉
Some of the changes in the French policies will affect Eurozone, the BRICS and USA very directly, and I hope to discuss all that in my future predictions, where I’ll also cover German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chances of winning the German elections in 2013.
To refresh your memory of my previous posts, where I cover all this in more detail, please read them here:
1/12/2012: YEAR 2012 PREDICTIONS
3/3/2012: 2012 Predictions Update: Russian Elections
4/28/2012: 2012 Predictions Update: French Elections and Eurozone
In conclusion:
So what can we expect from the upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections on 11/6/2012? I predicted on 1/12/2012 that the Republicans would pick Mitt Romney and that Barack Obama would beat him NARROWLY in November. By narrowly I mean no more than 5%. Most likely 3% or less. For more about that, read my earlier predictions above. I am planning a couple of updates later this year, one is entitled, “Ron Paul‘s Big Mistake” and another will be posted closer to November. In it, I’ll also discuss the USA and the world after the elections.
I am still hoping to release my BOOK OF PREDICTIONS – AFTER 2012 later in the year, time permitting. I will also try to cover some of my other predictions for this very stormy and unpredictable decade here, on my blog. But, since I have too many predictions, too little time, we’ll see how it goes.
Stay tuned! 🙂
As a reminder to my readers, I do not belong to any political party and consider myself a political atheist. My analysis is based on observation, logic, intuition and the Ancient Chinese System of Long Cycles (CSLC).
Copyright 2012 Lada Ray. All rights reserved.
Lada Ray Blog 
You are correct. What is your prognostication for the rest of the decade? I predict a long, slow decay of the United States, Europe, and Russia while all three leaders are in power. I have little faith in any of them to set the world on a better course. That’s not to say that the world won’t be a better place by 2020, but Mr. Putin, Mr. Hollande, and Mr. Obama are not the leaders to do it. They lack the capacity to find innovative solutions to their nations’ problems. Their ships are sinking, and they will continue to plug holes while the water rises and the world passes them by. A socialist or a Gaullist in France makes little difference fixing a European-wide debt crisis. What Mr. Putin will do won’t be much different than what he has already done. The same is true for Mr. Obama. New leadership is needed. While that may sound odd considering he was a candidate who just four years ago called for “hope” and “change,” sadly, this election cycle has been a continuation of the bitter politics that started under Clinton, accelerated under Bush, and continued with the president. That’s not to say his rival will be any different, but with a likely Republican Congress in November, in all likelihood Mr. Obama’s reelection will mean heightened acrimony (and gridlock) for the next four years.
I look to the future leaders of tomorrow to realize a different world where there’s genuine hope and prospects for change, where people with diverse political views can work together to find solutions. I see it in the next generation in Cuba that will open it up, the next leader of Venezuela who will moderate its tone, the younger Kim in North Korea whose first major speech toned down the Juche rhetoric, the legacy of Lula in Brazil carried on by Roussef, in places such as Sri Lanka that put an end to its civil war and in Myanmar/Burma, where its political freeze is starting to thaw. I see it in the streets of Cairo, Egypt, and in Homs, Syria, in the growing enterpreneurial class in Africa, and emerging economies in Vietnam and Indonesia. I see it in the developing middle class in China that is now demanding greater freedom, and the stability of a Canada that the rest of the West should emulate. It’s the kind of change that can visualize a peaceful Afghanistan, Iraq, Sudan, and Somalia as happened in once wartorn Northern Ireland, Bosnia, Vietnam, and Timor L’este, rather than chronic pessimism that says they’re hopeless. Or promoting a growth agenda for all rather than fighting for the same pie.
Sadly, I don’t see this in the bitter halls of power in America, in a fracturing Eurozone, or in a Russia that still needs to mature as a democracy and open economy. While the West is predictable like clockwork — problems, swing left, problems swing right — it’s going to be very difficult to predict what will happen in the rest of the world and whether it will make the world a better place given the West’s increasingly weak leadership. I hope and pray it does.
Hi Mike!
This is a very interesting and thorough overview of many problems and questions the world is facing today, and will face tomorrow. I agree that politics of the West is pretty predictable. These posts are a bit of fun for me really, and I also hope I can educate and, perhaps, wake up some people to what’s happening around us. The serious predictions are much more difficult to express, and perhaps I’ll be able to do that in my book.
That said, the response to what you are saying is complex. I agree that the world needs REAL change, and it will continue going through such change throughout this decade. In birthing pains, I might add.
The dominant powers of today won’t give up their share of control easily, but they’ll have to share some of their power, whether they want it or not. Let’s just hope it’ll happen without major military conflicts, instigated primarily by the USA (the super-bully of the world). Prediction: there will be NO major war, but regional conflicts are too real of a threat.
I disagree with some of your assessments. For one, you are a bit too optimistic about the developing world and the influence it’s likely to exert over the next decade. All players are already in positions for the next 7-10 years. Now, the following decade – that will be a different story.
I also partially disagree about Europe and Russia. There is a lot to be said on these issues, so I’ll try to cover some of that in my future posts.
It’s also important to remember WHY these changes are occurring; the long-term dynamics that are at play here. There is a lot of frustration in the USA and Western Europe that things that used to go swimmingly for these countries, are presently going nowhere. It’s happening for a reason. Some events taking place right now NO ONE in the West has the power to change. I don’t mean to sound cryptic, but it’s just impossible, because the tide has turned and the wind is blowing in the opposite direction.
What do I mean? I’ll try to cover that in my future posts and the book that I’m still hoping to release, my crammed schedule allowing. 🙂
I hope we continue our discussion again soon. Cheers,
Lada
Very interesting, Lady. I do hope you are wrong about the American election. France will stop playing the “French Poodle” to the U.S.- LOL Great statement.
Thanks, and…
I know, I know – I get that a lot about my US election prediction. Yet, some others rejoice. 😉 I got that about Sarkozy too 😉
I just want to remind everyone again that I am just a removed observer. I see what I see. Perhaps I’m wrong – we’ll know soon enough, in November.
Wishing you all the best and stay in touch,
Lada
We should start calling you Nostradamus and perhaps if you have not already you should start placing some bets on these outcomes.
I guess Sarkozy never had much a chance with the Eurozone disaster. What about the UK, do you think The Conservatives will last or will our worsening economy see the return of a Labour government.
Thanks, Guy, and perhaps I should 😉
As for the UK. First, I have to confess, it’s one of my favorite countries and I feel really comfortable there. I love the country, but not its politics. The UK has also changed a lot. Part of it is what’s happening to the Western world in general, and NO ONE can override that.
As for the Conservatives: there will be a lot of struggle going forward, but I think David Cameron and British politicians in general are used to mutual yelling and name calling much more so than in almost any other country on the planet (well, aside from Ukraine and South Korea, perhaps). That’s their way. As a matter of fact, they seem to thrive on confrontation – which amazes me to this day.
Cameron is not a real leader, but he is both a tough politician and opportunist. He is also quite slippery and can slither his way out various tight spots. As long as he continues yelling and screaming on every corner his anti-Eurozone slogans, criticise Germany/Angela Merkel and Brussels, and demand UK’s special status within the EU, he’ll appeal to the nationalistic tendencies of his electorate. I also won’t be surprised if he comes up with other similar slogans concerning austerity, for example (if he hasn’t already).
The Conservatives are okay for now, since the Brits are tired of Tony Blair and his party. In part because Blair succumbed to the US pressure and dragged the country into Iraq and Afghanistan. THAT will take time to forgive!
There will be a switch in the future, but not yet. Hard to tell how long, but probably at least a few years. There is more, but about that later. Great question though!
The UK economy is a separates subject. Hopefully, I’ll be able to cover that in one of the future posts and in my book.
Keep in touch,
Lada
Reblogged this on 1earthnow and commented:
Political Nostradamus Strikes Again!
Maddy, you are a riot 🙂 Thanks so much for reblogging!
Lada Read this but I have little knowledge about Worlds Diplomatic affairs.. I am closed with my place and my own small needs. But I am happy to know that I was correct tha you are Full of knowledge ‘A tree full of fruits and still bending to give comfort to others through its shade’. My all the best wishes. Also my Ma has send you blessings to you and thanx for the book.. Your friend Pranjal
Thank you, Pranjal, and warmest regards to your Ma 🙂
The prospect for major conflicts is real because the US and Western nations have been trying to avoid the rise of China and Russia. Putin’s two next terms will not go as the first two ones. Putin intends to have closer ties with China and the formation of Eurasian block is high on his agenda. All this worries the Western powers that need access to oil and gas to counterbalance the effect of the ongoing crisis they are facing.
Alfred, you are well-versed in the subject, as usual. I’ll be posting lots of updates to my predictions throughout the year and I intend to discuss the subjects of Russia, China, BRICS, oil, US and its future conflicts, global economics and monetary system, as well as the future of Africa, as you requested. These are all fascinating studies. Stay tuned!
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