2012 French Elections, 2012 Russian Elections, 2012 US Elections, EU, Euro, Europe, Eurozone crisis, François Hollande, France, Hollande, Marine Le Pen, Nicolas Sarkozy, PREDICTIONS: 2012 & Beyond, Russia, Sarkozy, United States, Vladimir Putin
I am interrupting my GOLD TRAIN BLOG TOUR today for an update on my predictions for the French Presidential Elections, April 22 – May 6, 2012.
On January 12, 2012 I posted YEAR 2012 PREDICTIONS on this blog. Included were the “big three” elections for the so called Year of Elections, namely Russia, France and USA.
Read the original post: Year 2012 Predictions
The Russian Presidential Elections have already taken place on March 4. Vladimir Putin won the elections in the exact way and with the exact percentage of votes I predicted. But I’ll brag about that on another occasion ;)
After all, this post is all about French Elections.
As a reminder to my readers, I do not belong to any political party and consider myself a political atheist. My analysis is based on observation, logic, intuition and the Ancient Chinese System of Long Cycles (CSLC).
So, here’s what I said on January 12, 2012 regarding the incumbent French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his chances to win another term:
“France, Presidential Elections, April 22-May 6, 2012: French President Nicolas Sarkozy, together with Angela Merkel of Germany (whose re-election is not until 2013, and I’ll talk about her chances on another occasion) will do everything in their power to reassure the Europeans and the markets in 2012, and will pull a rabbit out of the hat, if necessary. Watch for various announcements from the Eurozone, directed at flooding the system with cheap money, more bailouts, etc.
However, the Eurozone crisis will deepen, with more countries teetering on the brink of collapse, and French elections will happen at the most inopportune time for Sarkozy.
Openly right wing and considered the only neo-con able to win the election, he’s deeply disliked in his country, and will lose.
Again, in case anyone’s wondering, Sarkozy’s Chinese Zodiac sign is the HORSE. Maybe, that’s why the long face.
Just kidding, all you, fabulous Horses, out there! The Horse is a very cool and fortunate sign!”
I have also posted an update on March 3, the day before the Russian Elections, in which I updated my outlook for Putin’s chances, as well as Sarkozy’s outlook.
Here is what I said:
U.S. State Department code name: Emperor Without Clothes.
At this time, no change in my prediction. He’ll still lose the election – more emphatically so!”
Read the 3/3/12 update: 2012 Predictions Update: Russian Elections
So what’s happening in the French Presidential Elections? So far, it’s playing out exactly as I predicted. Nicolas Sarkozy only received 26.5 percent of votes in the first round and finished a humiliating second for an incumbent. Socialist Francois Hollande received over 27.5 percent, and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen, the rising star of French politics, finished third with a surprise 18 percent!
In the second round Sarkozy and Hollande will be vying for the votes of the third and fourth finish candidates.
My updated prediction:
In a very funny twist, I am predicting that in the second round socialist Hollande (left) will take some of Marine Le Pen’s (far right) votes, along with the fourth place finisher votes (far left).
Seemingly, it doesn’t make any sense. But: The vote for Hollande is a vote against Sarkozy. This is a protest vote, pure and simple. Because, as I said in my January 2012 prediction: “[Sarkozy is] deeply disliked in his country and [that's why he] will lose.” The French simply don’t want another five years with him.
In addition to Sarkozy’s ineffectual domestic policies and his foreign policy that is both too America-centered and too bellicose for the liking of the French electorate, there is also another reason. As mentioned before, the crisis in the EU continues to deepen and that spells disaster for the incumbent Euro leaders. So far, 9 governments have been ousted due to the European crisis, including Greek, Italian and Dutch. There are more to come. For Sarkozy, this spells the perfect storm.
On May 6, Nicolas Sarkozy will lose the election (which, based on his reaction after the first round has been a surprise only to him, but no one else). The next President of France, breaking with the long standing French tradition of allowing a president 2 terms in the office, will be… Francois Hollande.
Most importantly, with the new man at the helm, the direction of French politics will undergo a certain change. There will be SOME change in the French attitude towards the EU and Eurozone. However, I wouldn’t expect TOO MUCH of a change at this time. Real change will come later, but predictions about that – in another post.
Some change to the emigration policy from the poor countries, which is a big problem in many European countries, as well as in Russia. The European countries will attempt to coordinate their emigration policies and certain border controls will be introduced very soon. But the emigration mess will take a very long time to sort out.
Perhaps most notably, with the new president France will change some of its foreign policy. For one, France will stop playing, forgive the expression, “The French poodle” to the US foreign policy, the role it’s been playing during Sarkozy’s neocon tenure. France will re-acquire its more independent stance on foreign affairs, which it used to enjoy under various other presidents since Charles De Gaulle. And hopefully, France’s policy will acquire a more peaceful flavor, as support for invasions and bombings of other countries wanes.
General Charles De Gaulle
In conclusion, I also want to mention that if Francois Hollande fails to fulfill these deep seated hopes of his electorate, the French people will likely vote him out of the office five years from now.
Marine Le Pen
In that case, Marine Le Pen, the rising star of the French politics, emphisizing pride in France, its roots and culture; anti-emigration and inti-war policies, is likely to win the following elections in 2017.
The next 2012 Predictions update is coming in May, after the French elections.
Copyright 2012 Lada Ray