A MUST Read if You Are an Author! Does Amazon KDP Select FREE Promo Work?

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Amazon, Amazon Kindle, Barnes & Noble, book promotion, book sales, e-books, E-Publishing, Gold Train, Goodreads, Green Desert, Indie Publishing, KDP Select, Kindle, market share, Shelfari, Stepford USA

After hearing some success stories with Amazon KDP Select program, in May I finally decided to enroll GOLD TRAIN, STEPFORD USA and GREEN DESERT. I got some borrows, but borrowing wasn’t my goal.

It appeared that the program was effective for the previous authors when they made their books free for up to 5 days. Usually, lots of copies would get downloaded during the free period, which made the book jump in the Kindle rankings. After the book came off the free period, it would retain the imprint of its free ranking, which would make the paid ranking jump as well.  At least, this was the theory.

But the reality proved different…

Before I go into the story, I want to say that regardless of my feelings about the program, I am very happy and grateful that thousands of readers were able to download and enjoy my books for free. The most important thing for any writer is to be read. I wish all my readers a wonderful journey through the tantalizing world of Jade Snow! Enjoy!

And here is my story.

I made Green Desert, a Jade Snow Prequel set in Iraq, free for 5 days during the Memorial Day period. I didn’t expect too much, because it is just a short novella, and those don’t sell as well as novels. Although, as 5 star reviews from readers demonstrate, it is a darn good one! Green Desert promo was to be my test. I decided, if I liked what I saw, I’d run similar promos for my other books.

In five days, close to 1000 copies were downloaded in the US, UK, Germany, Spain and Italy. There were no downloads from France.

An awesome surprise was that I quickly received 3 unsolicited and unexpected, but very lovely, FIVE STAR reviews on Amazon. 2 of them also posted on Goodreads and Shelfari. On top of that, one of the satisfied readers added Shelfari book extras for Green Desert. Thank you, thank you, thank you! As a side benefit, for the first time I discovered Shelfari for myself (how out of the loop am I?).

The bestseller rankings jumped quickly and kept climbing. The highest I saw (I didn’t watch them all the time and only recorded some) were these:

US: #1780 Free on Kindle; #26 in Mystery/thrillers/ women sleuths

UK: #760 Free on Kindle; #16 in Mystery/thrillers/ women sleuths

DE: #1283 on Kindle; #25 Krimis (Mystery); #31 Thriller

ES: #700 on Kindle; #9 Policiaca, negra y suspense (Mystery/thriller/suspense)

IT: #811 on Kindle; #11 Gialli e Thriller (Mystery & Thriller)

Find out more about the GREEN DESERT free promo here! 

I decided that 5 days was way too long, and as Green Desert was winding down, I made STEPFORD USA, Jade Snow Book 1, free for 2 days.

My first unpleasant surprise was that the promo didn’t start on time. It was about 5-6 hours late in the US and more than 12 hours late in the UK, which cut into the promo time. As a result, there was less exposure, and rankings suffered as well. The other countries were even slower. I finally emailed Amazon regarding the problem and they assured me they corrected it. A fellow author, who was running his free promo at the same time from the UK, only had his book listed free in the US. His book was never made free in the UK, which was his primary market. Needless to say, he was quite disappointed.

Despite all the delays, Stepford USA quickly shot up in rankings and kept climbing. Over 2200 books were downloaded in the US, UK and Germany. There were no downloads at all in Italy, France and Spain (I’m guessing, because of the “USA” in the title).

I didn’t get any new reviews so far, probably because it is a much longer book, although several nice readers wrote to me that they were enjoying the book and would definitely write a review. Thank you and looking forward to that! 🙂

These are the highest bestseller rankings I noticed for Stepford USA (again, I didn’t follow them all the time):

US: #193 Kindle FREE; #29 Mystery & thrillers; #9 Mystery; #8 Women Sleuths

UK: #358 Kindle FREE; #14 Mystery & Thrillers/ Women Sleuths

DE: #259 Kostenfrei Kindle; #5 Krimis & Thriller/ Krimis (mystery); #50 Populare Belletristik (popular fiction)

So far, so good!

Find out all about STEPFORD USA Free Promo here!

Meanwhile, Green Desert came off the free promo, and that’s when I had my biggest, and VERY unpleasant, surprise.

Not only the new paid ranking didn’t reflect the free ranking, but it actually was worse then the book’s pre-promo rankings! Due to how the Amazon rankings algorithm works, because Green Desert was off the paid shelf for over five days (it took extra 5-6 hours to get it re-listed) and no PAID purchases were made during that time, it lost its prior position. I realized that something changed and Amazon no longer took into account the free rankings in order to compute its paid rankings.

But as after-promo sales started, Green Desert ($0.99 or UK/Euro equivalent) initially went up to #35,000 paid in the US, then tapered off as sales slowed down.

So the theory that free rankings help improve paid rankings had to be thrown out the window. In the end of this article I’ll discuss what is behind this, what’s really happening with KDP Select, and how it affects you.

When Stepford USA came off its promo, I was already prepared for the aftermath. Sure enough, after the book re-gained its paid status ($2.99 or UK/Euro equivalent) its ranking suffered, too. It was all of a sudden in the #400,000 category in the US. Then sales picked up and in 2 days it was #20,000 in the US for a brief time.

I think an explanation is due here: Again, I didn’t watch the rankings all the time and this was the best I noticed. But I was told that it probably went much higher than that, because at one point dozens of books were downloaded in the US alone within a couple of hours. Then, as fewer books were being downloaded, the familiar scenario of sales tapering off together with rankings occured.

As I observed all this, I decided it wasn’t worth running the free promo for GOLD TRAIN. At the same time, Amazon placed Gold Train on sale. Regular price was $3.99, sale price $2.99. One would think that sales should have picked up because of this. But interestingly enough, once I started the free promo for Green Desert and Stepford USA, sales of Gold Train, which was my bestseller at the time, stopped cold turkey on Amazon. It’s like all the energy was zapped out of Gold Train in favor of the other two books. Or was it because the reader now expected Gold Train to be available for free as well?

Ironically, Gold Train sales actually picked up on B&N, Kobo and Sony, where the book is priced at $4.99.

CONCLUSIONS:

1. I believe that Amazon has done a lot for the writing community. On balance, Indie authors and publishers have to be grateful to Amazon for pushing the envelope, for opening up the market and for the ease with which Indie titles can now be listed on digital shelves. The company deserves big credit for evening out the field.

2. However, in its relentless pursuit of the market share, Amazon is becoming ruthless, elbowing out competitors and insisting on exclusivity through its KDP Select program. The danger is now that it may become a monopoly, which in the end will hurt both Indie and Big 6 authors.

As a result, Amazon has been in a war with Barnes & Noble, as well as independent retailers. B&N and others have threatened to ban some Amazon authors from their shelves.

3. An important piece of the puzzle: I have found out that in the spring Amazon changed its KDP algorithm, so when the books come off the free promo, they lose their standings and have to compete anew to regain it.

Here is the reason Amazon changed its algorithm: The Big 6 publishers were unhappy that Indie authors gained standings and visibility by simply making their books free for a few days and then transferring those rankings into paid category. That hurt sales and rankings for the Big 6 books. So, Amazon bowed to pressure and changed its rankings algorithm to favor the Big 6, essentially taking away the only effective promotional tool Indie authors and publishers possess.

4. Amazon’s KDP Select is essentially a race to the bottom. If the readers are trained to receive books for free, they will hold off buying until the title they want goes free. Therefore, authors who value their work, perhaps because it’s worth it, get punished.

The worrying trend is: Amazon pushes everyone into this race to the bottom, thus devaluing all authors’ work.

5. If you tried KDP Select, you know that in order to enroll, you have to de-list your book from other retailers. This may result in a loss of future sales, as well as your ranking with those retailers. Plus, re-listing later is a huge hassle. That alone makes you think twice before enrolling.

And with the recent change in KDP algorithm, is KDP Select worth it?

On a much more pleasant note, many thanks to all my readers for downloading and reading my books! It means a lot for any author to be read and appreciated. If you liked my books, please consider reviewing them on Amazon, Goodreads and elsewhere ( I will also be re-listing on Smashwords, B&N Nook, Sony, Apple and Kobo in October). You can find all the buy links at my Book Store. 

My books are on Goodreads, so if you have an account, consider posting there, and also on Shelfari. 

Always remember that you can make an author’s day by writing a simple review!

Thank you very much and see you on pages of my books!

Warmest regards,

Lada Ray

P.S. Some time after this post, STEPFORD USA, GREEN DESERT, and especially GOLD TRAIN, started hitting some bestseller lists, albeit briefly. Read more about this, and about my KDP Select experience 2013!

Publishing Paradigm Shift. What is Better: KDP Select or Broad Distribution?

   

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Year 2012 Predictions

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12/21/12, Alternative, Angela Merkel, astrology, Chinese Year of the Dragon, crisis, Democrats, E-Publishing, End of the World, EU, Euro Zone collapse, Europe, Feng Shui, finance, French Presidential Elections, future, Indie Publishing, Kindle, markets, Mayan Calendar, New Year of the Dragon, Obama, Prophecies, Putin, Republicans, Romney, Russian Elections, Sarkozy, Social Media, United Russia, US Elections, world disasters, Year 2012, Year 2012 Predictions, Year of the Elections

Year 2012 Predictions

by Author and Feng Shui Master, Lada Ray

Scroll down to the end for the US Presidential Election prediction

and 10/28 update! 

First, a quick announcement: I’ve been planning to write:

BOOK OF PREDICTIONS – AFTER 2012

for some time now, but it’s been on hold due to other priority projects. I hope to write and release it this year, depending on my schedule.

What qualifies me to predict the future? In the past decade, I taught a number of my proprietary Feng Shui courses and did lots of consultations, in addition to writing about Feng Shui and spirituality for various publications around the world. As part of my speaking and writing, I made predictions about certain events in society and our lives, as well as advised clients on various real estate and investment-related matters.

My various predictions usually came true. As a quick example, I sold my own real estate property in 2005 – at the top – and advised my clients to do the same. Those, who followed my advice, cashed in very nicely. To find out more about me, check out my bio.

My predictive methodology is complex and consists of several parts.

1. As a former financial consultant with Smith Barney (Citigroup,) I understand the market movements.
2. Having lived in various countries, under various social systems, including socialism and capitalism, and having observed and studied the geopolitical mechanisms that led to the collapse of the Soviet Union, as well as those in the US, Europe, Asia and Latin America, I understand the driving forces in the world today.
3. I also draw on Western Astrology, which, together with other predictive methods, is a great tool.
4. Feng Shui, especially the Theory of Five Elements, along with Chinese Astrology,  is also helpful.
5. An important element in my predictions is the powerful Oriental System of Long Cycles, very little known, and even less understood today. Feng Shui, in its most profound and true manifestation, shares the same philosophy. I studied this system with revered Hong Kong Masters of Feng Shui. Since space in a blog post is limited, I intend to talk more about it in the upcoming BOOK OF PREDICTIONS.
6. Last, but not least: While I do not consider myself psychic, although some may beg to differ, in my predictions, I rely heavily on my intuition, which has never let me down.

Without further ado, let’s get to the core of the issue. The Year 2012 is the Year of the Dragon, according to the Chinese system, and it also has been called the Year of Elections. So, what does this year hold in store for us all?

First, something that has been done to death (no pun intended) in books and film: Should we expect the End of the World on 12/21/12?

The short answer is – ABSOLUTELY NOT! The above date, when Earth forms a direct line with the Galactic Center, will be a non-event and will go absolutely unnoticed by most humans. Some may feel more emotional and high strung, but it could be because these people are feeling the nervousness of others around them. However, the world will keep spinning, and life on Earth will go on.

The long answer is more complex. There are very powerful, LONG TERM changes at work. Those of us who are currently involved with, say, Indie Publishing, or Social Media, and some other areas, are actually at the forefront of these changes.

Suffice it to say that humanity is going through a massive transformation of consciousness, which will last for the foreseeable future, and at times, may be painful and confusing.

But these changes are gradual, although some manifestations are visible in cataclysms and events of today. Examples include: Japanese tsunami and Fukushima disaster, Gulf of Mexico oils spill, the Occupy Movement, Egypt Revolution, US/Europe Economic Problems, The BRICS, Kindle and Indie Publishing Revolution and many others.

Please read more about these events and changes in my upcoming books: THE EARTH SHIFTER (a fantasy/thriller) and BOOK OF PREDICTIONS (non-fiction.)

For more about my books, please visit: LadaRay.com

What to expect in the YEAR OF THE DRAGON? How does it differ from the other years of the Chinese Zodiac?

Year of the Dragon is considered one of the most powerful years for business and innovation. It ushers in more Yang – aggressive, assertive – energy, than almost any other year in the 12-year Chinese Zodiac cycle. Therefore, this year we should expect new developments in various revolutionary and alternative technologies. By the way, fellow Indie authors, this could be the year for you!

In general, starting your business is considered especially auspicious during the Year of the Dragon. This year will also be good for anything alternative.

On the other hand, the Year of the Dragon could signify more turmoil in both social and political spheres, as well as in nature. Sorry to say, natural, as well as man-made disasters won’t subside.

Read more about the powerful Dragon in my tomorrow’s post, right here, on Lada Ray Blog!

2012 is called THE YEAR of ELECTIONS, with something like 40 countries going to the polls to elect new Heads of State. This includes the big three: Russia, USA and France.

My friends will tell you that I could talk for hours about geopolitics, but due to the confines of the blog space, I’ll be brief and discuss the big three. Also, just to mention, I am a ‘political atheist’ and do not participate in any political party. My analysis is based on logic, facts, intuition, Chinese Astrology and Theory of Long Cycles.

I will go with plus 2, minus 1.

RUSSIA, Presidential Elections, March 4, 2012: Vladimir Putin will win easily enough, although, due to the crowded field and according to the Russian electoral rules, he may only get clear majority in the second round. Protests on part of the Communists and assorted opposition will continue, and electoral fraud will be alleged again, whether it took place, or not.

However, between now and March, Putin and the ruling United Russia Party will make all the right moves, and Putin will end up securing anywhere between 55 – 68% of the votes. 55% may be way too low. Low to mid 60s is probably the right percentage.

While Russians could afford to play around with the results of the Duma elections in 2011, they’ll treat Presidential Elections much more seriously. Putin means stability, and everyone will remember that. Russian social, economic, political, financial, police and army reforms will continue in a controlled fashion during Putin’s Presidency. I will try to discuss Russia’s future in detail in my BOOK OF PREDICTIONS.

There is one more, esoteric, reason for Putin’s win: He is a DRAGON, according to his Chinese Zodiac sign. 2012 will be much better for Putin, than 2011, as the power of the Dragon is fully behind him this year! 😉

USA, Presidential Elections, November 6, 2012: Republicans will pick Romney, who is perceived as the man of the middle, and therefore, appears a safe bet. And Romney will NOT beat Obama. Because, as one rapper said, speaking at Occupy Wall Street, “Obama is ten times the campaigner, as he is the President.” The rapper, whose name I won’t mention here, added, “And I mean it as a compliment, Mr. President!”

In short, USA will remain sharply divided along partisan lines. Obama will narrowly win another 4-year term.

Meanwhile, various protests will continue and intensify. Emergence of a third party is very possible, fueled with disillusionment with the establishment and election results.

What happens during Obama’s second term is another story altogether, and I’ll  discuss it later in my BOOK OF PREDICTIONS, as well.

Ah, yes, in case anyone’s wondering, Barack Obama’s Chinese Zodiac sign is the OX, considered along with the Dragon, one of the most powerful signs. Obama is in good company here, as the Ox is the sign of a world leader and can also be rather charismatic. He shares it, infamously, with Saddam Hussein. But also, with Margaret Thatcher, Princess Diana and Jane Fonda. 😉

France, Presidential Elections, April 22-May 6, 2012: French President Nicolas Sarkozy, together with Angela Merkel of Germany (whose re-election is not until 2013, and I’ll talk about her chances on another occasion) will do everything in their power to reassure the Europeans and the markets in 2012, and will pull a rabbit out of the hat, if necessary. Watch for various announcements from the Eurozone, directed at flooding the system with cheap money, more bailouts, etc.

However, the Eurozone crisis will deepen, with more countries teetering on the brink of collapse, and French elections will happen at the most inopportune time for Sarkozy. Openly right wing and considered the only neo-con, able to win the election, he’s deeply disliked in his country, and will lose.

Again, in case anyone’s wondering, Sarkozy’s sign is the HORSE. Maybe, that’s why the long face. 😉 Just kidding, all you, fabulous Horses, out there! The Horse is a very cool and fortunate sign!

Wishing you a terrific and auspicious Year of the Dragon! Please like and comment to let me know what you think about my predictions!

P.S. On 1/13/12, only two days after I posted my prediction about Sarkozy losing the French elections, S&P downgraded French debt, stripping it of it’s coveted AAA rating. France was downgraded along with 8 other Eurozone countries. This move, as analysts unanimously agree, spells disaster for Sarkozy in the upcoming elections. And it also signals that the Eurozone problems are bound to intensify this year.

Update 10/28/12:

Russia and France voted exactly as I originally predicted on 1/11/12, GOP nominated Romney, and there are clearly 3rd parties emerging in the USA. Two Third Party Presidential debates are being hosted by Larry King and aired by RT America (First debate took place several days ago and is available on Youtube; second – foreign policy – debate will air and be posted on Youtube on 10/30).

Upcoming US Presidential Elections: no change from the original 1/11/12 prediction! Obama wins narrowly, with less than 5%, possibly less than 3% advantage.

It is interesting to note that, while in the USA the vote will be very close, abroad it’s not even a contest. Based on multiple surveys and polls from over 20 countries, Romney gets more support only in Pakistan, which is attributed to the Pakistanis’ irritation with deadly drone strikes, not so much to their preference of a specific candidate. Most countries have Romney in single digits, with Western Europe, especially France, favoring Obama by the widest margin.

My prediction: while Obama is far from ideal, no world leader (except, perhaps Israel’s Netanyahu) wants Romney as US President, in fact he scares everyone with his bellicose posturing. Foreign perception is that his angry rhetoric, lack of reason and restraint would make his presidency into Bush 2.0. By the way, this is also perception of much of the international investment community – and international investment community is seldom wrong.

It is naive to think that American elections happen in a vacuum. In our globalized and interconnected world, it should not be underestimated how much influence other countries and global community hold over any country’s policy and elections. In fact, I noticed that global opinion is the most accurate barometer of presidential election results in any country. For example, the international community at large (excluding USA and UK) wanted Putin to win (of course, there was really no contest anyway). In France, both the country and international perception were against Sarkozy, and sure enough – he lost.

 

Read my follow up articles/predictions regarding the elections in Russia, France and USA.

1. Russia Votes: Crash Course in Russian Politics

2. 2012 Predictions Update: Russian Elections

3. 2012 Predictions Update: French Elections and Eurozone

4. 2012 Predictions. Year of Elections: Russia, France – USA next!

I will be posting a follow up after the US elections, including my new predictions regarding the very important for the Eurozone German Chancellor Election 2013, including Angela Merkel’s chances.

Many have asked me to expand my predictions and talk about the future of financial markets, economic outlook for various countries and continents, as well as the future of world peace. I will try to post more of my predictions going forward. Stay tuned!

Copyright 2012, Lada Ray

Check out GOLD TRAIN (Accidental Spy Russia Adventure), rip-roaring thrill ride from Moscow to St. Petersburg, based on true historic events. It’s mystery, thriller, magic, and hot romance…

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For blurbs/excerpts/trailers – GOLD TRAIN and other books: LadaRay.com

Till next time,

Cheers!

Lada