Predictions 2012 Update: US Presidential Elections

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Angela Merkel, Assad of Syria, Barack Obama, Confusion and Contested votes during US elections 2012, Contested US Elections 2000, Eurozone, France, George W. Bush, German Elections 2013, Gold Train by author Lada Ray, Green Party USA, Hurricane Sandy aftermath, International relations, Libertarian Party USA, Mercury Retrograde, Middle East, Mitt Romney, Occupy Wall Street, Russia, Sarkozy, Third parties in the USA, US Economy, US Presidential Elections 2012, USA, Vladimir Putin, World Trends Predictions by Lada Ray, Year 2012 Predictions

US Presidential Elections are on November 6, 2012. On January 11, I posted my original predictions for 2012, including the so-called Year of Elections, namely my predictions for USA, Russia, and France.

Here’s what I said regarding US Presidential Elections: 

“Republicans will pick Romney, who is perceived as the man of the middle, and therefore, appears a safe bet. And Romney will NOT beat Obama. In short, USA will remain sharply divided along partisan lines. Obama will narrowly win another 4-year term.

Meanwhile, various protests will continue and intensify. Emergence of a third party is very possible, fueled with disillusionment with the establishment and election results.”

Read my original Year 2012 Predictions

As usual, I want to remind everyone that I am a ‘political atheist’ and do not participate in any political party. My predictions and analysis are based on logic, facts, intuition, my knowledge of world cultures and geopolitical trends, long-time experience as financial consultant and investor, and Chinese Theory of Long Cycles.

More about me in ‘About.’

So far: Russia and France voted exactly as I originally predicted on 1/11/12, GOP nominated Romney, and there are clearly 3rd parties emerging in the USA. Two Third Party Presidential debates are being hosted by Larry King and aired by RT America. First debate took place several days ago between 4 alternative party candidates, incl., Green, Constitutional and Libertarian, and is available on Youtube; second debate on foreign policy will air and be posted on Youtube on 10/30. Very educational, by the way, and a great illustration of what’s going on beyond mainstream media. I urge everyone to watch! Check back in a day or two, I might most the Youtube links to both right here, or go to Youtube and do a search. If your cable carries RT America or RT, you can see it on TV.

Watch: First Third Party Presidential Debate 

Upcoming US Presidential Elections: no change from the original 1/11/12 prediction! Obama wins narrowly, with less than 5%, possibly, less than 3% advantage.

It is interesting to note that, while in the USA the vote will be very close, abroad it’s not even a contest between the two candidates. Based on polls from over 20 countries, Romney gets more support only in Pakistan, which is attributed to the Pakistanis’ irritation with deadly drone strikes, not so much to their preference of a specific candidate. Most countries have Romney in single digits, with Western Europe, especially France, favoring Obama by the widest margin.

My prediction: while Obama is far from ideal, no world leader (except, perhaps Israel’s Netanyahu) wants Romney as US President, in fact he scares everyone with his bellicose posturing. Foreign perception is that his rhetoric, lack of reason and restraint (as well as lack of understanding and knowledge of international affairs) would make his presidency into Bush 2.0. By the way, this is also the perception of much of the international investment community – and international investment community is seldom wrong.

It is naive to think that American elections happen in a vacuum. In our globalized and interconnected world, it should not be underestimated how much influence other countries and global community hold over any country’s policy and elections. In fact, I noticed that global opinion (don’t confuse that with the US media propaganda) is the most accurate barometer of presidential election results in any country. For example, international community at large (excluding USA and UK) wanted Russia’s Putin to win (of course, there really was no contest anyway). In France, both the country’s and international perception were against Sarkozy, and sure enough – he lost.

Other interesting cases include Italy’s Berlusconi resignation from his post as Prime Minister (in part due to international pressure), and Hugo Chavez winning recent Venezuelan elections despite his cancer, absence from the political scene, and despite having to compete against a young, strong and very charismatic right-wing candidate. Chavez managed to generate a very broad international support – that’s the secret of his success! Assad of Syria is another prominent example of foreign influence. By the way, I received questions from my readers regarding the future of Assad, as well as the situation in the Middle East at large and I intend to cover it soon in one of the future articles.

P.S. For those who pay attention to astrology: From the astrological perspective, US Elections 2012 are taking place during the start of Mercury Retrograde, infamous among astrologers for introducing confusion, delays and misunderstandings, as well as mistakes in documents and broken machinery/electronics. A friend-astrologer of mine who read my article, just reminded me that the last time the US Elections happened during Mercury Retrograde, in 2000, the confusion resulted in the Supreme Court choosing the winner, George Bush, with controversy continuing to this day. US Presidential Elections on November 6, 2012, may be just as confusing and messy (if not more so), with possible mistakes, lost or contested results. Double check everything while voting.

11/1 Update. This is from my comment (to read more click on ‘comments’):

“To our discussion about the Hurricane Sandy factor: I believe the hurricane will ultimately help Obama, like 9/11 helped Bush. The nation tends to rally behind the President in times of disaster, and the opposing party has no choice but to mute its rhetoric, because the alternative might backfire on that party. I know, this is pretty awful that we need a disaster to feel more united, but here it is.”

Update 11/2: Hurricane Sandy will also temporarily stimulate the economy and the stock market, once more postponing the inevitable recession/depression. Much will have to be rebuilt, and the government will again turn on its virtual printing presses, happily throwing money they don’t have left and right. But the key word here is “temporarily.” No nation in the history of the world could run on debt indefinitely, without having to eventually face the gruesome reality. USA is no exception.

Read my other articles/predictions regarding the elections in Russia, France and USA.

1. Russia Votes: Crash Course in Russian Politics

2. 2012 Predictions Update: Russian Elections

3. 2012 Predictions Update: French Elections and Eurozone

4. 2012 Predictions. Year of Elections: Russia, France – USA next!

I will be posting a follow up after the US elections, including my new predictions regarding the very important for the Eurozone, German Chancellor Elections 2013, and Angela Merkel‘s chances to be re-elected.

Many have asked me to expand my predictions and talk about the future of financial markets, economic outlook for various countries and continents, as well as the future of world peace. I will try to post more of my predictions going forward. Stay tuned!

Copyright 2012, Lada Ray

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2012 Predictions. Year of Elections: Russia, France – USA next!

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Angela Merkel, Barack Obama, BRICS, Eurozone crisis, François Hollande, France, geolpolitics, Germany, Hollande, Marine Le Pen, Mitt Romney, Nicolas Sarkozy, PREDICTIONS: 2012 & Beyond, Ron Paul, Russia, U.S. Presidential Elections, United Russia, Vladimir Putin, Year of Elections

Okay, time to brag…

So, the Russian and French Presidential Elections are over in the exact way I predicted.

I said back on 1/12/2012 (and reiterated on 3/3) that Vladimir Putin would win another term with low-to-mid 60% of votes because the majority of Russians want stability, which Putin represents, and due to the fact that he and the ruling United Russia party would make all the right moves in the run-up to the elections on March 4. I also said that the allegations of fraud and protests would continue, no matter what.

That’s exactly what happened. United Russia made all the right moves before the elections, allegations of irregularities (most of the time unproven or outright fabrication) and protests are ongoing… and Putin won with 63.6% of votes.

It should be mentioned that the analysts projected him to take the votes in the high fifties. 63.6%, higher than expected, seemed to have surprised and overwhelmed President elect himself and analysts alike.

Putin’s next presidency will be very different from his 2 previous terms in this turbulent decade and in this ever-changing world of ours. I hope to cover the future of Russia, Eurasia, the BRICS and its influence on the direction of the world in one of my subsequent posts.

French Presidential Elections (4/22-5/6/2012) just ended. In my posts of 1/12, 3/3 and 4/28/2012 I predicted that Nicolas Sarkozy would lose the election due to the crisis in the Eurozone, failure of his neocon policies and general dislike the French electorate feels towards him. I also said that in a bizarre twist, socialist Hollande would take part of the far right Marine Le Pen‘s votes, because that would be the only way Hollande could win.

I also said that there would be certain changes to the French domestic and foreign policy, as the country will stop playing the “French Poodle” to the U.S. and will slowly re-aqcuire its more independent stance.

Everything happened in the exact way I predicted. Marine Le Pen, courted by Sarkozy for votes, refused to endorse him. Hollande won narrowly, but convincingly, due to some of her votes. Changes in France’s internal and especially external policies are widely expected, although, as I said, don’t expect too much all at once. It will be gradual and slow and real changes will happen later. Hollande already stated that he wouldn’t be a problem for the fellow left-winger (arguably) Obama – at least in the election year. Heads will likely start rolling in 2013.

Some of the changes in the French policies will affect Eurozone, the BRICS and USA very directly, and I hope to discuss all that in my future predictions, where I’ll also cover German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chances of winning the German elections in 2013.

To refresh your memory of my previous posts, where I cover all this in more detail, please read them here:

1/12/2012:  YEAR 2012 PREDICTIONS

3/3/2012:   2012 Predictions Update: Russian Elections

4/28/2012: 2012 Predictions Update: French Elections and Eurozone

In conclusion:

So what can we expect from  the upcoming U.S. Presidential Elections on 11/6/2012? I predicted on 1/12/2012 that the Republicans would pick Mitt Romney and that Barack Obama would beat him NARROWLY in November. By narrowly I mean no more than 5%. Most likely 3% or less. For more about that, read my earlier predictions above. I am planning a couple of updates later this year, one is entitled, “Ron Paul‘s Big Mistake” and another will be posted closer to November. In it, I’ll also discuss the USA and the world after the elections.

I am still hoping to release my BOOK OF PREDICTIONS – AFTER 2012 later in the year, time permitting. I will also try to cover some of my other predictions for this very stormy and unpredictable decade here, on my blog. But, since I have too many predictions, too little time, we’ll see how it goes.

Stay tuned!

As a reminder to my readers, I do not belong to any political party and consider myself a political atheist. My analysis is based on observation, logic, intuition and the Ancient Chinese System of Long Cycles (CSLC).

Copyright 2012 Lada Ray. All rights reserved.

2012 Predictions Update: French Elections and Eurozone

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2012 French Elections, 2012 Russian Elections, 2012 US Elections, EU, Euro, Europe, Eurozone crisis, François Hollande, France, Hollande, Marine Le Pen, Nicolas Sarkozy, PREDICTIONS: 2012 & Beyond, Russia, Sarkozy, United States, Vladimir Putin

I am interrupting my GOLD TRAIN BLOG TOUR today for an update on my predictions for the French Presidential Elections, April 22 – May 6, 2012.

On January 12, 2012 I posted YEAR 2012 PREDICTIONS on this blog. Included were the “big three” elections for the so called Year of Elections, namely Russia, France and USA.

Read the original post: Year 2012 Predictions

The Russian Presidential Elections have already taken place on March 4. Vladimir Putin won the elections in the exact way and with the exact percentage of votes I predicted. But I’ll brag about that on another occasion

After all, this post is all about French Elections.

As a reminder to my readers, I do not belong to any political party and consider myself a political atheist. My analysis is based on observation, logic, intuition and the Ancient Chinese System of Long Cycles (CSLC).

Nicolas Sarkozy

So, here’s what I said on January 12, 2012 regarding the incumbent French President Nicolas Sarkozy and his chances to win another term:

“France, Presidential Elections, April 22-May 6, 2012: French President Nicolas Sarkozy, together with Angela Merkel of Germany (whose re-election is not until 2013, and I’ll talk about her chances on another occasion) will do everything in their power to reassure the Europeans and the markets in 2012, and will pull a rabbit out of the hat, if necessary. Watch for various announcements from the Eurozone, directed at flooding the system with cheap money, more bailouts, etc.

However, the Eurozone crisis will deepen, with more countries teetering on the brink of collapse, and French elections will happen at the most inopportune time for Sarkozy.

Openly right wing and considered the only neo-con able to win the election, he’s deeply disliked in his country, and will lose.

Again, in case anyone’s wondering, Sarkozy’s Chinese Zodiac sign is the HORSE. Maybe, that’s why the long face. 

Just kidding, all you, fabulous Horses, out there! The Horse is a very cool and fortunate sign!”

I have also posted an update on March 3, the day before the Russian Elections, in which I updated my outlook for Putin’s chances, as well as Sarkozy’s outlook.

Here is what I said:

“French elections, April 22 – May 6, 2012 – Nicolas Sarkozy.

U.S. State Department code name: Emperor Without Clothes.

At this time, no change in my prediction. He’ll still lose the election – more emphatically so!”

Read the 3/3/12 update: 2012 Predictions Update: Russian Elections

So what’s happening in the French Presidential Elections? So far, it’s playing out exactly as I predicted. Nicolas Sarkozy only received 26.5 percent of votes in the first round and finished a humiliating second for an incumbent. Socialist Francois Hollande received over 27.5 percent, and far-right nationalist Marine Le Pen, the rising star of French politics, finished third with a surprise 18 percent!

Francois Hollande

In the second round Sarkozy and Hollande will be vying for the votes of the third and fourth finish candidates.

My updated prediction:

In a very funny twist, I am predicting that in the second round socialist Hollande (left) will take some of Marine Le Pen’s (far right) votes, along with the fourth place finisher votes (far left).

Seemingly, it doesn’t make any sense. But: The vote for Hollande is a vote against Sarkozy. This is a protest vote, pure and simple. Because, as I said in my January 2012 prediction: “[Sarkozy is] deeply disliked in his country and [that's why he] will lose.” The French simply don’t want another five years with him.

In addition to Sarkozy’s ineffectual domestic policies and his foreign policy that is both too America-centered and too bellicose for the liking of the French electorate, there is also another reason. As mentioned before, the crisis in the EU continues to deepen and that spells disaster for the incumbent Euro leaders. So far, 9 governments have been ousted due to the European crisis, including Greek, Italian and Dutch. There are more to come. For Sarkozy, this spells the perfect storm.

CONCLUSION:

On May 6, Nicolas Sarkozy will lose the election (which, based on his reaction after the first round has been a surprise only to him, but no one else). The next President of France, breaking with the long standing French tradition of allowing a president 2 terms in the office, will be… Francois Hollande.

Most importantly, with the new man at the helm, the direction of French politics will undergo a certain change. There will be SOME change in the French attitude towards the EU and Eurozone. However, I wouldn’t expect TOO MUCH of a change at this time. Real change will come later, but predictions about that – in another post.

Some change to the emigration policy from the poor countries, which is a big problem in many European countries, as well as in Russia. The European countries will attempt to coordinate their emigration policies and certain border controls will be introduced very soon. But the emigration mess will take a very long time to sort out.

Perhaps most notably, with the new president France will change some of its foreign policy. For one, France will stop playing, forgive the expression, “The French poodle” to the US foreign policy, the role it’s been playing during Sarkozy’s neocon tenure. France will re-acquire its more independent stance on foreign affairs, which it used to enjoy under various other presidents since Charles De Gaulle. And hopefully, France’s policy will acquire a more peaceful flavor, as support for invasions and bombings of other countries wanes.

General Charles De Gaulle

In conclusion, I also want to mention that if Francois Hollande fails to fulfill these deep seated hopes of his electorate, the French people will likely vote him out of the office five years from now.

Marine Le Pen

In that case, Marine Le Pen, the rising star of the French politics, emphisizing pride in France, its roots and culture; anti-emigration and inti-war policies, is likely to win the following elections in 2017.

The next 2012 Predictions update is coming in May, after the French elections.

Stay tuned!

Lada Ray

Copyright 2012 Lada Ray

2012 Predictions Update: Russian Elections

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American Elections, Barack Obama, Chinese Zodiac, CULTURE: Russia, Dragon, Elections in Russia, France, French Elections, Nicolas Sarkozy, protests, Putin, Russian Elections, United Russia, United States Department of State, US President, US State Department, USA, Vladimir Putin

 

On January 11, 2012 I wrote a blog post entitled: Year 2012 Predictions. Included in the post were my predictions for the so called ‘Year of Elections,’ namely, Russia, USA and France. In the post, I predicted that Vladimir Putin would win the elections. 

As a reminder to my readers, I do not belong to any political party and consider myself a political atheist. My analysis is based on observation, logic, intuition and the Ancient Chinese System of Long Cycles (CSLC).

Here is the original prediction as it pertains to Russia:

RUSSIA, Presidential Elections, March 4, 2012: Vladimir Putin will win easily enough, although, due to the crowded field and according to the Russian electoral rules, he may only get clear majority in the second round. Protests on part of the Communists and assorted opposition will continue, and electoral fraud will be alleged again, whether it took place or not.

However, between now and March, Putin and the ruling United Russia Party will make all the right moves, and Putin will end up securing anywhere between 55 – 68% of the votes. 55% may be way too low. Low to mid 60s is probably the right percentage.

While Russians could afford to play around with the results of the Duma elections in 2011, they’ll treat Presidential Elections much more seriously. Putin means stability, and everyone will remember that. Russian social, economic, political, financial, police and army reforms will continue in a controlled fashion during Putin’s Presidency. I will try to discuss Russia’s future in detail in my BOOK OF PREDICTIONS.

There is one more, esoteric, reason for Putin’s win: He is a DRAGON, according to his Chinese Zodiac sign. 2012 will be much better for Putin, than 2011, as the power of the Dragon is fully behind him this year! 

Read the entire original Year 2012 Predictions

Due to the dynamic situation surrounding the Russian elections, as well as elections in other countries, I decided to post an update. Also, I’ve added CIA/U.S. State Department code names, to illustrate the point and… well, because you’ve got to admit, they are kinda funny.

Russian Elections, March 4, 2012 - Vladimir Putin.

CIA code name: Alpha Dog. U.S. State Department code name for Putin/Medvedev tandem: Batman and Robin. But they might’ve changed that since Wikileaks leaked it.

As predicted, Putin and United Russia made all the right moves in the run up to the elections. Putin published a series of articles outlining his vision for Russia’s future; new finance and economic reforms have been announced; more social benefits have been promised; he held his very popular annual televised live Q&A, which lasted a record 5 and a half hours; the rules for protests have been loosened up to accommodate the larger than usual number of people on the streets. Essentially, all protests have been automatically sanctioned – a big departure from old rules – as long as they were peaceful.

As a result, I am upgrading my prediction: Putin will win in the first round. There will be NO run-off. He will get anywhere between low 60% to mid 60% of the popular vote. Could be as high as 67-68%.

Also, read my new post: Russia Votes: Crash Course in Russian Politics

French elections, April 22 – May 6, 2012 – Nicolas Sarkozy.

U.S. State Department code name: Emperor Without Clothes.

At this time, no change in my prediction. He’ll still lose the election – more emphatically so!

U.S. Elections, November 6, 2012 – Barack Obama.

I guess we’ll never know Obama’s CIA/State Department code names, will we? But I can tell you that Russians call him: the Black Gorbachev

No change in my prediction – Obama will narrowly win 2012 elections.

Copyright 2012, Lada Ray

Russia Votes: Crash Course in Russian Politics

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allegations of fraud, Arab Spring, ballot stuffing, CULTURE: Russia, Europe, Gennady Zyuganov, Greece, Lada Ray predictions, Mikhail Prokhorov, Moscow, Occupy movement, opposition, Politics of Russia, predictions, protests, Putin, Russian politics, Russian president, Russian Presidential elections 2012, Sergey Mironov, United Russia, United States, USA, Vladimir Putin, Vladimir Zhirinovsky, Year 2012 Predictions

Russia will be voting for the country’s new president on Sunday, March 4, 2012.

Because of the Russian electoral rules, one cannot use poll numbers several days before the elections. Currently in effect: moratorium on promoting specific candidates to avoid influencing the voters.

As a reminder to my readers, I do not belong to any political party and consider myself a political atheist. My analysis is based on observation, logic, intuition and the Ancient Chinese System of Long Cycles (CSLC).

The Russian political scene is changing rapidly as a record number of citizens take part in protests and demonstrations, both for and against various candidates. Historically speaking, this level of activism is unusual for Russia. Well, apart from the 1917 Bolshevik Revolution and the 1990-93 USSR dissolution period. Most other times in Russian history, the population wasn’t that active politically.

Russian protests differ substantially from the Arab Spring, US Occupy movement, Greek, Spanish, British and other European protests, because they are NOT economically driven. Russians have not experienced a cut in pay or unemployment. In fact, salaries and standard of living have been steadily and substantially rising for the past decade. This activism is driven by a desire to see more change, better and faster reforms, as well as ‘the Putin fatigue.’ As one commentator put it, “It’s media fatigue: people are tired of seeing Putin’s face all over the news.”

I do want to point out that my analysis, based on CSLC, indicates that social and political activism around the world will keep intensifying during this decade. This is true not only for Russia, but for the vast majority of countries, including most of Europe, USA, the Middle East and Asia, as well as – perhaps, to a lesser degree – Latin America, Africa and Australia.

Due to allegations of fraud and ballot stuffing during 2011 Duma (Russian Parliament) elections, over 30,000 Russians have signed up to be anti-fraud monitors during Presidential elections on March 4, 2012.

This year, 5 candidates are eligible to run for the Russian presidency. The remaining contenders were unable to collect the number of signatures required to run.

The winning candidate must receive over 50% of the popular vote or face second round run-off against 2nd place candidate.

CANDIDATES:

Vladimir Putin (Center: Ruling United Russia Party).

Russian President, 2000-2008. Current Prime Minister of the Russian Federation. Still, by far the most popular politician in Russia. United Russia had suffered a substantial “defeat” during 2011 Duma elections. Well, if you consider a defeat getting 49.5% of the votes. But it was a step down from their usual 60-70% approval rate. Besides, they needed 50% in order to maintain a constitutional majority in the Duma. In that sense, the result was quite disappointing.

Putin may have lost some of his support among the more affluent population of Moscow, who ironically benefited most from his and United Russia policies in the past 12 years. But he gained support in the Russian regions. He’s widely projected to win, even by his opponents and detractors. Putin is very feared by the U.S. and some other Western governments, yet supported by most world governments, as well as the international investment community. International investors, as well as the Russian majority, seek stability. And they know, Putin is the only one who can deliver that.

For Putin, it is not as much the issue of winning. It is more how he wins. He needs clean, beyond reproach elections; and a win in the first round to avoid compromising his substantial clout in Russia and abroad.

Vladimir Zhirinovsky (Right/Nationalist: Liberal Democrats).

Speaker of the lower house of the Duma. An old timer in the Russian politics who’s been around since Yeltsin; may have lost some of his original base, but is still popular amongst the young males, especially in the Russian regions. Famous for his loud and often scandalous speeches and behavior, Zhirinovsky enjoys a staunch support base because he often says what others don’t dare due to political correctness.

Gennady Zyuganov (Far left: Communist Party).

The Communists have enjoyed a substantial increase in support in the past year. Nostalgia for the good, old Soviet Union days and low pensions for retirees have aided in Zyuganov’s popularity. Communist party is a very hands-on grassroots organization, members of which go door to door and help each other, as well as the needy, according to the old Soviet tradition. Which also explains the rise in popularity.

Party’s weakness: the Communists have never been good at accounting. To this day, it’s unclear where the money for all the social reforms they are proposing (essentially, the rollback to the Soviet Union) will come from.

Sergey Mironov (Center Left: Fair Russia Party, aka, A Just Russia Party).

Chairman of the Russian Federation Council 2001 – 2011, the Upper House of the Duma. Fair Russia Party has appeal among those voters who are not quite communists, but who would like more social security and government controls. Also, among those who are not quite center.

Mironov has repeatedly proposed an amendment to the Russian constitution that would allow the President to be elected for 3 consecutive 5 or 7 year terms. In 2007, Boris Gryzlov, leader of the rival United Russia party, said that changing the constitution would be unacceptable. Mironov is considered to be more socialism oriented, as he wants to set up special agricultural exchanges for state purchases of agricultural goods and introduce government intervention in regulating prices of basic food stuffs.

Mikhail Prokhorov (Independent).

Russian oligarch, billionaire, Forbes 400, Owner of the NY Mets. The only candidate not backed by a party. He commands quite a presence and towers over everyone in the room at close to 7′ of height. Prokhorov has a pro-business platform and enjoys some support among the rich, the business people and the affluent. Most likely, a negligible factor in these elections.

Based on the current dynamic situation, I will be upgrading my Year 2012 Predictions for the Russian elections. Read an update tomorrow – right here, on Lada Ray Blog.

Read the original Lada Ray Year 2012 Predicions!

Watch interesting debate - CrossTalk: Russia Votes

Copyright 2012, Lada Ray